ISIS Containment & Defeat
Next Generation Counterinsurgency - NexGen COIN
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As the US turns to American commandos in the Joint Special Operations Command (JSOC) to track down Islamic State (ISIS/ISIL) leaders, the author proposes a much more comprehensive strategy to sustainably contain and defeat ISIS in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East and North Africa. This next generation counterinsurgency (NexGen COIN) strategy includes: a coordinated international campaign to bankrupt ISIS and degrade its use of the Internet to proselytize and radicalize; developing viable political alternatives to ISIS in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere based on lessons learned in global counterinsurgency and Middle East warfare; building a powerful military coalition to destroy ISIS that includes Saudi Arabia and other leading Sunni powers in the Gulf region; Arab, Kurdish and Turkish ground troops operating in unison in Syria and Iraq supported by US, NATO and Russian air power and shared intelligence; Russian and Iranian support for a “political transition” in Damascus and governance change in the Shiite-led government in Baghdad that includes decentralization so that Iraqi Sunnis can share power like the Kurds in Kurdistan; deploying frontline advisors in safe havens in Syria, Iraq and elsewhere in the Middle East, protected by no-fly zones, to lead NexGen COIN campaigns that harness the full capabilities of cloud-enabled cognitive computing technology; and provision of refuge for persons displaced by warfare and failures of governance who otherwise would migrate to Turkey and Europe. NexGen COIN will support bottom-up decision-making by special ops/frontline advisors who utilize a cloud-based cognitive system that, in real-time, integrates and shares all intelligence and other relevant data from any source of value for three primary purposes: fighting ISIS; refugee management and crisis intervention; and managing all aspects of rebuilding, local governance, planning and service delivery.
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About the Book
In the aftermath of terrorist attacks by ISIS (ISIL or Daesh) in Paris, Beirut and on the Russian jet over the Sinai Peninsula, the US and much of the world is focused on crushing the Islamic State. Countless refugees and displaced persons fleeing to Europe, Turkey, Lebanon and Jordan have thrust the long and bloody civil war in Syria and decades of warfare and insurgencies in Afghanistan, Iraq, Yemen and Libya into the 2016 presidential political campaign. ISIS terrorism is fueling political opposition in the US to welcoming Syrian refugees and also focusing more attention on terrorists infiltrating Central America with fake passports and illegally crossing the US border with Mexico.
Strategies for uprooting, containing and defeating ISIS have to take into account an incredibly complex historical and geopolitical context in the Middle East and Persian Gulf region that has spawned insurgencies, terrorism, widespread disorder, corruption and the meltdown of governance in Syria, Iraq, Libya and Yemen. None of these crises in the Middle East and Africa have had any political, military or counterinsurgency solutions that have worked to contain ISIS and other jihadist terrorism.
Further destabilization looms in Syria as the result of Russia’s military intervention to support Assad’s brutal regime and supposedly to fight ISIS. Both Russia and Iran have supported Assad for many years. Iran’s strong financial and other support for Assad is likely to increase when sanctions are lifted as a result of its international nuclear deal. An anti ISIS strategy has to deal with the different agendas of US allies: Turkey’s enemy is the Kurds; the Kurds are determined to protect and expand their territories in Iraq and Syria; Saudi and the Gulf States are most concerned about Iran and its proxies; Iran aims to protect and support Shiites in Syria and Iraq; many insurgents in Syria are militant Islamists; and the Afghan government is struggling with reform and Taliban attacks.
Next generation COIN (NexGen COIN) strategies central to ISIS containment and defeat, and protecting the US homeland from terrorist attacks, include: recommendations for regional stabilization and reconciliation processes in the Middle East; and creation of protected safehavens under no-fly zones for two purposes: for displaced people in Syria, Iraq, Afghanistan, and Yemen that otherwise would become refugees; and to provide safe zones for training and support of local insurgents battling ISIS and other jihadists.
NexGen COIN strategies build on: lessons learned from decades of warfare and anti-jihadist counterinsurgencies in the Middle East; years of dedicated work by US military and other experts to revamp US Army COIN doctrine and military rules of operations; US expertise in advanced information technology, machine learning, artificial intelligence and communication technology; special operations experience and capabilities that can provide US frontline advisors/cyberwarriors with unprecedented bottomup decision-making and intelligence gathering and analysis capabilities.
About the Author
Arnold Schuchter, former chief intelligence analyst with the Chief in Command of Pacific Forces (CINCPAC), international consultant, city planner, author and Internet pioneer has consulted with US, other national, state and local governments on strategies and plans to improve transportation, infrastructure and services, resolve racial and ethnic conflicts, and use information technology to effectively manage their decision-making.